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Enough ETH for ETH2? Status Update – November 22, 2020

The much anticipated rollout of major upgrades to the Ethereum Network (known as Eth2) is due to begin on December 1, 2020 with the launch of the Beacon Chain. This launch will start a series of phased upgrades that aims to improve the network’s throughput, scalability, and perhaps most notably, begin moving Ethereum from a proof of work (PoW) to a proof of stake (PoS) consensus model. These are major changes which all ETH users should be aware of.

This is a big project, and it relies on the userbase committing ETH to nodes on the Beacon Chain. A total of 16,384 validators will need to stake 32 ETH in order for the launch to occur on the planned December 1 date. This isn’t exactly pocket change. As of writing, one ETH is valued at ~$568, so staking 32 ETH means an individual will have to commit over $18,000 in value. With 16,384 validators, this amounts to 524,288 ETH or ~$298 million.

So where do we stand? Are the 16,384 validators showing up? Are they staking the required ETH?

Here are some stats from Dune Analytics as of writing:

  • 255,712 ETH deposited for staking on ETH2
  • USD equivalent of $145.5 million in ETH staked
  • 48.77% of the required ETH amount

Maybe it doesn’t look so good at the moment with less than two weeks to get another 268,576 ETH or ~$150 million dedicated to the new chain.

What’s holding people back? While pooling together ETH is an option, many big players have not begun offering this either because they simply aren’t ready or because a withdrawal feature for the upgrade won’t be available at the start. The uncertainty around the genesis date is also an issue, as it may get delayed if not enough people stake the required 32 ETH. 

But but but! With less than 9 days to go, it looks like this is going to come down to the wire. Of the ETH dedicated to the Beacon Chain, 39,232 was sent on November 20th, and 87,456 was sent on November 21st totally a combined 126,688 ETH. These two days alone represent 49.5% of the total amount sent thus far. Perhaps the staking got a slow start, but if the pace of the last two days continues throughout the week, it just might get there. For those who don’t want to join because of the uncertainty around the genesis date, this sudden influx might move some fence sitters to start sending over their ETH to the cause.

Do we have any sense of what the general ETH community thinks of the chances? The prediction site Polymarket has the current odds of a successful Eth2 genesis event on December 1st at 55%. This was at a low of 27% on November 19th before shooting up to where it is now. It seems people weren’t so hopeful but have noticed the moves over the past couple days. This is going to be a close one!

Check back here throughout the week for updates.

 

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