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Morning‌‌ ‌‌Update—February 23th—Macro and Crypto Markets

It’s not just crypto that went down yesterday. With rising concerns over inflation and climbing treasury yields, equities gapped at the open and closed the session 1-2% down. The 10-year yield is now up, at 1.36%. The dollar dropped further. Gold, on the other hand, is benefitting and continues to bounce, now at $1,800.

 

In the crypto space, we saw a massive correction with BTC starting the day in the mid 57K’s and dropping at its lowest point to the mid 47K’s: that’s a $10,000 differential, or about 16% intraday low. Interestingly enough, prices have moved back up since then. We’re still closing in the red, but currently in the lower 53K’s.

 

The picture this session presents is unclear. On one hand, the massive drop most probably spooked a good chunk of the market; on the other hand, the quick recoup up—and the ensuing long bottom wick—suggests that buyers regained control and will not let prices down for long.

 

In previous briefings we hinted at lower institutional exchange premium along with some large inflows -typically associated with a stronger selling pressure and/or less buying power. Will the trend continue remains to be seen. For now, institutions seem to be back in full buying more.

 

My personal strategy remains the same: pullbacks are for buying. With orders in the lower 40K’s and upper 30K’s, I’m patiently waiting to see if we can load up on some more bitcoins; if not, I’ll happily ride the trend further up.

 

What about alts? As they do during volatility events, most were underperforming relative to BTC, but, it’s interesting to see that the BTC dominance index hasn’t gone up. With the move back up, alts regains and seem to be closing only slightly down or actually on par.

 

ETH, LTC, LINK, BCH, XTZ, is closing the day 10% down, while DOT and ADA are holding up well. Some exchanges didn’t handle the massive move well, though, and some of the major pairs dropped by ridiculous 75%-80% before going back up, with many people erroneously liquidated.

 

Lastly, as a quick information nugget, for anybody who thought BNY Mellon were just announcing crypto plans for PR, they’re now in talks with Fireblocks for their custody service. Let’s see how big this gets.

 

 

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